CMB International Global Markets LimitedJill Wu,Benchen Huang近期对药明康德(603259)进行研究并发布了研究报告《Growth momentum to accelerate in 2H22E》，本报告对药明康德给出买入评级，认为其目标价位为185.17元，当前股价为96.39元，预期上涨幅度为92.1%。
药明康德(603259)
Strong 1H22 results. WuXi AppTec reported 1H22 revenue of RMB17.8bn, up69% YoY (71%/66% YoY for 1Q/2Q22), attributable recurring net income ofRMB3.8bn, up 81% YoY (106%/65% YoY for 1Q/2Q22), and attributable adjustedNon-IFRS net income of RMB4.3bn, up 76% YoY (118%/49% YoY for 1Q/2Q22).Earnings are in line with our forecasts with 1H22 revenue / adjusted Non-IFRS netincome accounting for 46%/51%, respectively, of our 2022 full-year estimates.Revenue growth in 1H22 would have further accelerated by 7.2 ppts to 76% YoYand adjusted Non-IFRS GPM would have improved by 1.9 ppts YoY to 38.1%under constant currency exchange rates. The management increased its revenuegrowth guidance to 68-72% YoY from 65-70% YoY for 2022E, supported by itssolid RMB35bn backlog (+76% YoY) in 1H22.
WuXi Chemistry delivered phenomenal growth despite COVID-19interruptions, driven by strong growth from both COVID and non-COVIDprojects. WuXi Chemistry revenue jumped by 102% YoY in 1H22, mainlydriven by the 145% YoY revenue growth of chemical CDMO services. Basedon our estimates, the Company booked ~RMB4.2bn revenue from commercialstage COVID-19 projects in 1H22, accounting for ~32% of WuXi Chemistryrevenue. Excluding the commercial-stage COVID-19 projects, the segmentrevenue still achieved robust growth of 37% YoY in 1H22, indicating asustainable demand from non-COVID-19 projects. Driven by the successfulone-stop CRDMO business model, we forecast revenue of WuXi Chemistry toincrease 104%/11%/30% YoY in 2022E/23E/24E, representing a 43% CAGRin FY21-24E.
Cell and gene therapies (CGT) CDMO segment turned positive growth.CGT CDMO service revenue rebounded strongly to 36% YoY growth in 1H22from a 3% YoY decline in 2021, thanks to the steady increase in the numberof CGT pipeline projects, from 57 as of end-2021 to 67 as of 1H22. TheCompany’s revolutionary AAV manufacturing technology, TESSA, has gainedlarge interests from global clients. Six large biotech/pharma companies aretesting TESSA technology and one large pharma client has already initiatedTESSA technology licensure in 1H22. Given the significant yield improvement(30-40x) and cost saving (10-40x) compared with conventional productionmethod (i.e., plasmid transfection), we think TESSA has the potential tobecome a game-changer in global CGT CDMO market.
Expedited globalization pace. Besides the ongoing constructions of largescale drug product manufacturing facilities in Delaware, US, WuXi AppTecannounced to further invest US$1.4bn in next 10 years to build full-suite R&Dand manufacturing capabilities in Singapore. Singapore sites will commenceoperations by 2025/26 which will enable the Company to better facilitate thegrowing and diversified client demand.
Maintain BUY. We maintained our TP at RMB185.17, based on a 10-year DCFmodel (WACC: 10.94%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%).
证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，浙商证券(601878)郭双喜研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达96.4%，其预测2022年度归属净利润为盈利87.87亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为32.44。
最新盈利预测明细如下：
该股最近90天内共有27家机构给出评级，买入评级27家；过去90天内机构目标均价为144.49。根据近五年财报数据，证券之星估值分析工具显示，药明康德（603259）行业内竞争力的护城河优秀，盈利能力良好，营收成长性一般。财务可能有隐忧，须重点关注的财务指标包括：应收账款/利润率、存货/营收率增幅。该股好公司指标3.5星，好价格指标2星，综合指标2.5星。（指标仅供参考，指标范围：0 ~ 5星，最高5星）
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